Posted: Thursday , 12 Feb 2009
CAPE TOWN -
Listed gold stocks continue to lead the attempted recovery in global stock markets, supported on Wednesday by a dollar gold bullion price that moved to seven-month highs, above USD 945 an ounce. Measured on an absolute basis, the market value of gold stocks listed around the world moved to well above USD 200bn, the highest level seen since October 2008, a month after erstwhile Wall Street investment bank Lehman Bros. filed for bankruptcy, triggering yet another stage of the most intense crisis in world credit and equity markets seen in decades.
Seen as a commodity, gold bullion has surrendered the least of its record price, seen in March 2008, and currently trades just 9% below that record price of just short of USD 1,033 an ounce. The ongoing recovery of gold bullion prices -which have moved below USD 700 an ounce since making record highs - has underpinned a recovery in listed stock prices for companies representing the metal, from explorers to miners. The extent of the recovery has left the vast majority of other mining stocks (with the narrow exception of silver stocks), and stocks of any other kind, far behind. While the MSCI Barra dollar index for all global equities has moved 12% above its lows, seen late in 2008, and emerging market stocks have "bounced" up by 26% from lows, gold stocks, measured on the weighted average value of 250 listed names, have risen 128% from low points, seen just months ago.
The Tier II gold stock grouping, led by names such as JSC Polymetal, Centerra, and heavyweights such as Yamana and Agnico-Eagle, has risen by a fantastic 173% from low points, also within just a few months. Silver stocks have outperformed gold stocks as an overall group, with a weighted average increase of 147% from lows, led by the likes of Fresnillo, and Silver Standard.
Spot silver prices are trading 36% below record highs, also seen in March 2008, but listed silver stocks have long traded in sympathy with trends in gold stocks, tending, however, to overshoot on the rise and also on the fall. However, while the global market value of listed gold stocks runs at well above USD 200bn, silver stocks are worth well short of USD 20bn.The majority of silver is produced as a by-product at mines primarily focused on other metals.
Seen as a grouping, listed uranium stocks are also outperforming most mining stocks, with First Uranium among those names that continue to deliver exceptional price increases. Meanwhile, the SPDR Gold Shares exchange traded fund (ETF), a security that holds physical gold on behalf of its investors, continues to attract significant investor inflows. The security, the biggest gold bullion EFT in the world, currently holds nearly 900 tons of physical gold, valued at nearly USD 27bn. In line with the price performance of dollar gold bullion, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF is currently just 8% below its record highs.
| INDICES | From | From | |
| Points | high* | low* | |
| MSCI world equities USD | 846.42 | -46.0% | 11.5% |
| MSCI emerging markets USD | 561.38 | -55.2% | 25.9% |
| S+P 500 | 828.08 | -42.5% | 11.7% |
| DJ Stoxx 600 | 192.11 | -42.3% | 7.9% |
| KBW banks | 27.41 | -69.5% | 9.9% |
| STOCK | Value | From | From |
| GROUPS | USD bn | high* | low* |
| Dow Jones Industrial | 2598.66 | -42.6% | 17.4% |
| Top 100 miners | 873.36 | -63.4% | 78.7% |
| Oil stocks | 1998.86 | -48.4% | 33.2% |
| S + P 500 Energy | 1039.73 | -46.3% | 33.4% |
| Gold Tier I | 160.36 | -44.4% | 117.2% |
| Gold Tier II | 41.58 | -45.3% | 173.3% |
| Gold overall | 225.39 | -46.7% | 127.7% |
| Silver stocks | 12.46 | -63.0% | 147.4% |
| World banks (80) | 1713.03 | -62.6% | 30.1% |
| Uranium stocks | 14.95 | -58.0% | 81.8% |
| * 12-month | |||
| Source: market data; analysis by Barry Sergeant | |||
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